Today's Numbers - November 3
The "Can it really be?" last day edition:
Maybe if McCain had another week or two, he might have a chance, but even with a bit of state-level tightening there's no way he can overcome Obama's lead by tomorrow unless all the polls are way off. That's what the win percentage numbers are factored around.
Then again, John McCain is speaking on TV in the background, and he's still talking about Joe the Plumber. I have no idea what the hell he is doing. If you want to see why the campaign is where it is, listen to Obama speak and then listen to McCain. Obama's become a stronger, more forceful speaker in the last days of the campaign. Even when he stumbles--like telling a crowd in Jacksonville this morning that "the McCain camp is running a lot of ads here in Ohio"--he manages to recover in a way that makes the audiences love him more. But more than that, he's refined a clear, consistent message, and it works.
McCain, though, is all over the place. His words often don't make sense. He bounces from topic to topic. He has no message--he just throws out attack after attack, without any substance. In the background, he just made some crack in Virginia about Obama being more liberal than "some guy from Vermont who used to call himself a Socialist". I'm pretty sure he was referencing Bernie Sanders, but the silence in the audience was deafening. And what's more--there's no plan, no policy. It's a discomforting mix of platitudes and misleading attacks, all slogans and out-of-context quotes. This is NOT how a successful campaign is run.
I'm feeling fairly confident, but there's still that 10% chance that McCain could pull it off. After watching the campaign, almost two long years, I don't want to think what it would say about our country if McCain won. The fundamentals are ripe for a Democrat to win, and Obama has run an amazing campaign, while John McCain has tripped over himself the whole way. If McCain did put it off, the only explanation I could muster? That it's all about race. I'm not just talking Bradley-Wilder or overt "I ain't voting for no n---er" racism. I'm talking all the questions about Obama's religion, his patriotism, his associations--all these things are really just code for his otherness, his race. The accusations leveled against him over the past year would be laughable if said about a white man, but they work with him because many people are looking for a less overtly racist reason to express the discomfort they feel about a black man being president. Nobody questions Sarah Palin's religion, even though she's openly said that the Iraq war is really a "task from God", and told people they had to support her plan for an oil pipeline because it was "God's will". Nobody questions the patriotism of those who mislead the country into a war that's irreparably damaged our economy and our military, and cost thousands upon thousands of lives. Nobody loses sleep over the associations of Republicans who coddled Saddam Hussein in the 80s and who launched bin Laden's career. Nobody pays much attention to these accusations, which have far more basis in fact and far greater implications for the actual future of the country, but somehow such accusations are credible in Obama's case? I call bullshit.
And if somehow this works tomorrow? All I can say is, God help us. And I'm not even religious.
Maybe if McCain had another week or two, he might have a chance, but even with a bit of state-level tightening there's no way he can overcome Obama's lead by tomorrow unless all the polls are way off. That's what the win percentage numbers are factored around.
Then again, John McCain is speaking on TV in the background, and he's still talking about Joe the Plumber. I have no idea what the hell he is doing. If you want to see why the campaign is where it is, listen to Obama speak and then listen to McCain. Obama's become a stronger, more forceful speaker in the last days of the campaign. Even when he stumbles--like telling a crowd in Jacksonville this morning that "the McCain camp is running a lot of ads here in Ohio"--he manages to recover in a way that makes the audiences love him more. But more than that, he's refined a clear, consistent message, and it works.
McCain, though, is all over the place. His words often don't make sense. He bounces from topic to topic. He has no message--he just throws out attack after attack, without any substance. In the background, he just made some crack in Virginia about Obama being more liberal than "some guy from Vermont who used to call himself a Socialist". I'm pretty sure he was referencing Bernie Sanders, but the silence in the audience was deafening. And what's more--there's no plan, no policy. It's a discomforting mix of platitudes and misleading attacks, all slogans and out-of-context quotes. This is NOT how a successful campaign is run.
I'm feeling fairly confident, but there's still that 10% chance that McCain could pull it off. After watching the campaign, almost two long years, I don't want to think what it would say about our country if McCain won. The fundamentals are ripe for a Democrat to win, and Obama has run an amazing campaign, while John McCain has tripped over himself the whole way. If McCain did put it off, the only explanation I could muster? That it's all about race. I'm not just talking Bradley-Wilder or overt "I ain't voting for no n---er" racism. I'm talking all the questions about Obama's religion, his patriotism, his associations--all these things are really just code for his otherness, his race. The accusations leveled against him over the past year would be laughable if said about a white man, but they work with him because many people are looking for a less overtly racist reason to express the discomfort they feel about a black man being president. Nobody questions Sarah Palin's religion, even though she's openly said that the Iraq war is really a "task from God", and told people they had to support her plan for an oil pipeline because it was "God's will". Nobody questions the patriotism of those who mislead the country into a war that's irreparably damaged our economy and our military, and cost thousands upon thousands of lives. Nobody loses sleep over the associations of Republicans who coddled Saddam Hussein in the 80s and who launched bin Laden's career. Nobody pays much attention to these accusations, which have far more basis in fact and far greater implications for the actual future of the country, but somehow such accusations are credible in Obama's case? I call bullshit.
And if somehow this works tomorrow? All I can say is, God help us. And I'm not even religious.
posted by Andrew at
12:06 PM
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