Today's Numbers - November 1
The definitely-not-endorsed-by-Dick-Cheney edition:
I think at this point, the numbers are the numbers. The national polls have been essentially stable for the past four days now. Obama's win percentage margin has been between +70 and +80 for nearly three weeks. And while it looks like there's been some movement on the electoral vote trackers, the differences we've seen over the past three or four weeks have been mainly single states (generally Indiana and Missouri) flipping back and forth based on one poll or another. Averaging over different trackers makes it look like there's more going on, but that's just the same results filtering through at different times in different ways. This race is very stable right now, and with 20% of the country having already voted (probably more like 30% by the time all the early votes are in), and the first poll closings less than 72 hours away, don't expect much to change between now and then.
What to expect, then: If the polls are right or close to right, Obama wins in a landslide, by more than a hundred electoral votes. If the polls are way off across the board, McCain has a chance. But if the polls are off, I would predict them to be off in Obama's favor, because his massive get-out-the-vote operation looks to bring a lot of new voters to the polls who are often excluded from traditional "Likely Voter" models.
Tomorrow I'll update the numbers if anything changes, but otherwise I'll be here with my what-to-watch-for guide to election night, as well as my own predictions based on polls, demographics, early voting trends, and plucky intuition.
I think at this point, the numbers are the numbers. The national polls have been essentially stable for the past four days now. Obama's win percentage margin has been between +70 and +80 for nearly three weeks. And while it looks like there's been some movement on the electoral vote trackers, the differences we've seen over the past three or four weeks have been mainly single states (generally Indiana and Missouri) flipping back and forth based on one poll or another. Averaging over different trackers makes it look like there's more going on, but that's just the same results filtering through at different times in different ways. This race is very stable right now, and with 20% of the country having already voted (probably more like 30% by the time all the early votes are in), and the first poll closings less than 72 hours away, don't expect much to change between now and then.
What to expect, then: If the polls are right or close to right, Obama wins in a landslide, by more than a hundred electoral votes. If the polls are way off across the board, McCain has a chance. But if the polls are off, I would predict them to be off in Obama's favor, because his massive get-out-the-vote operation looks to bring a lot of new voters to the polls who are often excluded from traditional "Likely Voter" models.
Tomorrow I'll update the numbers if anything changes, but otherwise I'll be here with my what-to-watch-for guide to election night, as well as my own predictions based on polls, demographics, early voting trends, and plucky intuition.
posted by Andrew at
8:42 PM
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