My Predictions

At the risk of jinxing everything, here are my predictions:




Reasoning behind my predictions for swing states:

• Colorado: McCain hasn't led here since mid-September. High numbers of Hispanics also work in Obama's favor, as do the promising early voting numbers. I've been over the voter rolls in this state personally, and even with the talk of illegal voter purges and the like, there's no evidence that this systematically helps either side. So I'm confident about this one.
  
  
• Florida: I was worried about Florida, but I think Charlie Crist gave the state to Obama when he issued an executive order extending early voting hours.
  
  
• Georgia: It would be nice to win Georgia, but I think it's a little out of reach this year unless it's a complete blowout. More likely, Obama to within 4-5% but still loses. The early voting figures, however promising they are, don't show enough of a difference to shake off Georgia's red, red roots.
  
  
• Indiana: Obama was never supposed to win Indiana, and I don't really think this is the year for it. He'll have very high support in Indianapolis and Gary, but the rest of the state (typical rural Midwest) is going to be heavily McCain. Bush killed Kerry here in 2004, and it might come close but McCain will probably hold on.
  
  
• Missouri: Like Georgia, another nice idea, but unlikely for Obama. Because he didn't come close in the polls until lately, Obama never set up the kind of ground game that he has in Virginia and Ohio, so we shouldn't expect any extra bump from that. And Missouri has never been part of a winning Obama strategy to begin with, since it's unlikely he would get it without getting Ohio, Pennsylvania, and plenty of other states to put him over the top first. So there (rightly) hasn't been a whole ton of effort expended here, and it'll probably stay with McCain.
  
  
• Montana: Obama might have had a chance here with some effort, but what's the point? Montana's 3 EV were never going to be critical, and it's not on the way to anywhere else that matters, so campaigning here would've been a waste of time. In a few years it could trend blue on its own (with the help of Brian Schweitzer), but leave that up to the locals.
  
  
• Nevada: Obama's people came in force during primary season, and never really left. On paper, it's slightly less favorable to him than Colorado, but I think Obama's lead is solid given McCain's lack of effort here recently.
  
  
• North Carolina: Though I'd initially placed this in the "Maybe Next Year" category, the massive early voting changed my mind. Not only is the voting heavy (as of this morning, 2.57 million early votes; there were 3.55 million TOTAL votes in 2004), but it skews heavily Dem (52D/30R/18I). Blacks are also showing up at disproportionately high levels (26.5% of early voters vs. 22.3% of population), so that's another encouraging sign for Obama. It'll be close, but I think he can pull this off.
  
  
• North Dakota: See "Montana".
  
  
• Ohio: This goes against all my instincts--the bitterness of having worked there in 2004 still lingers strongly--but the poll numbers are consistent and the ground game is strong for Obama. This is the call I agonized about most, and I may end up kicking myself for it. (I am, after all, a Red Sox fan, and thus believe that all it takes is one person to f--- it up for everyone else.)
  
  
• Pennsylvania: Bush lost here in 2000 and 2004, and the conditions have only gotten worse for Republicans since then. The only hope for McCain has been racism, and it's more likely than not that the racism in rural Pennsylvania will be offset by the increased turnout in urban Philly and Pittsburgh. Sorry Republicans, your white whale escapes again.
  
  
• Virginia: Obama's been working for this one all along, and he's earned it. Add to that changing demographics, recent Dem success in the Governor's office and the Senate, and heavy early voting, and this should be a sure thing.
  

Disagree? Leave your thoughts in the comments forum below.