Final Numbers - November 4 (!!!)

Oh... hi Godot:









You can read these as well as I can by now. The only thing I want to point out: FiveThirtyEight, only 1.9% for McCain? Come on. The problem with FiveThirtyEight's model, as I've said before, is that it doesn't account for a some big screwup--systematic problems with the polls, unusual turnout patterns, etc. If we were certain that the polls accurately reflected the sentiments of the voters in a predictably variable way, then sure, I'd take 1.9%--and this is what their model does. But I'd add a few more percentage points on the chance that the polls are wrong across the board--which they've often been before (see NH, last January). So I'm not ready to break out the champagne just yet.

That said... there will be some on hand tonight. You know, just in case.

Now stop reading and go vote! See you on the other side...