Today's Numbers - October 30
Of course McCain likes his internal poll numbers, because his external poll numbers still suck:
Four days to go. Deep breaths.
Another day where, even if the national poll trackers don't look great for Obama, the state poll numbers seem to be holding up. I think what we're seeing is in part a product of Obama's efforts to stretch the electoral map.
We can tend to think of the election as being held in three sets of states: the lean-Obama states (NH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NM, OR), the lean-McCain states (NC, IN, MO, GA, MT, ND), and the true swing states(FL, OH, PA, CO, NV, VA). Obama had two possible strategies going in. First, he could attempt to hold down his own states while picking off a couple real swing states. This would mean the election becomes make-or-break in a few select states, probably the big-3 of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. This is what Kerry did in 2004, and we know how that strategy worked out.
Alternatively, he could make a play in all states where he had some kind of shot, and force McCain to spread himself thin. This is what Obama did, particularly in the post-convention period, and because of his fundraising advantage he managed to get to where we are now--which is that Obama is ahead by a small margin in a lot of states that were previously red. All he needs is a couple of them to go his way to win, and the odds of that look good. Obama has forced McCain to spend money advertising in red states like Georgia and Missouri, which were thought to be safe even just a few weeks ago. The goal of this strategy is simply to bankrupt McCain and keep him from being competitive in all the states he needs--much as he did against Clinton in the primaries. He doesn't need to win every state he campaigns in to make it worth his while, because McCain has limited resources to spread around.
The interesting trend in the past few days is that while Obama has gained small leads in states where he was previously behind by a couple points (FL, OH, MO, NC), his leads have diminished in a few other key states (PA, VA, CO) that are still part of a solid victory strategy. What appears to be happening here is that Obama's making the choice to diversify--rather than run up large leads in a few key states, he would rather have small leads in a bunch of key states, and so is devoting resources accordingly.
This move is safer in one way and more risky in another than making a play for a few key states in these final days, even after forcing McCain to write off any hope of inroads into Kerry states not called "Pennsylvania". On the safe side, it minimizes the chance that one or two states' screw-ups (bad turnout predictions, voter disenfranchisement, long lines, outright fraud) will jeopardize the entire election. On the risky side, keeping small leads gives McCain a slightly greater chance of winning back a whole bunch of the states at once, if something were to happen to shift the national mood a few points in his favor.
I think that the Obama camp is going with the right strategy, as hard as it to watch. The national polls do seem to be trending in McCain's direction. I said yesterday that much of this change may be base consolidation in red states, given all the red meat he's thrown them lately (accusations of socialism and terrorisms are always redneck crowd pleasers). But even if that's wrong, there are still only four full days left until the election. Maybe if the election were November 15, McCain could come back in a legitimate sense, but four days is simply too short to make up a full 3-5 points in most of these states.
This is especially true in the age of early voting, when large numbers of voters cast their ballots during Obama's peak of the past two weeks. What's more, the trends in early voting by party and demographic suggest that it's Obama's base that has come out early, meaning that the opportunity for McCain to peel away some of his support is even smaller than it would have been in previous years. McCain's whole strategy in the past month has been to run a Bush/Rove-style campaign--throwing every kind of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks--but this isn't what he needs to be doing. This campaign style plays to the base, but as we saw in the 2006 elections, the Republican base is not nearly the size it used to be. What McCain needs right now is independents, and he's unlikely to get them this way. The campaign he's running now makes absolutely no sense--but I'm not complaining.
Four days to go. Deep breaths.
Another day where, even if the national poll trackers don't look great for Obama, the state poll numbers seem to be holding up. I think what we're seeing is in part a product of Obama's efforts to stretch the electoral map.
We can tend to think of the election as being held in three sets of states: the lean-Obama states (NH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NM, OR), the lean-McCain states (NC, IN, MO, GA, MT, ND), and the true swing states(FL, OH, PA, CO, NV, VA). Obama had two possible strategies going in. First, he could attempt to hold down his own states while picking off a couple real swing states. This would mean the election becomes make-or-break in a few select states, probably the big-3 of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. This is what Kerry did in 2004, and we know how that strategy worked out.
Alternatively, he could make a play in all states where he had some kind of shot, and force McCain to spread himself thin. This is what Obama did, particularly in the post-convention period, and because of his fundraising advantage he managed to get to where we are now--which is that Obama is ahead by a small margin in a lot of states that were previously red. All he needs is a couple of them to go his way to win, and the odds of that look good. Obama has forced McCain to spend money advertising in red states like Georgia and Missouri, which were thought to be safe even just a few weeks ago. The goal of this strategy is simply to bankrupt McCain and keep him from being competitive in all the states he needs--much as he did against Clinton in the primaries. He doesn't need to win every state he campaigns in to make it worth his while, because McCain has limited resources to spread around.
The interesting trend in the past few days is that while Obama has gained small leads in states where he was previously behind by a couple points (FL, OH, MO, NC), his leads have diminished in a few other key states (PA, VA, CO) that are still part of a solid victory strategy. What appears to be happening here is that Obama's making the choice to diversify--rather than run up large leads in a few key states, he would rather have small leads in a bunch of key states, and so is devoting resources accordingly.
This move is safer in one way and more risky in another than making a play for a few key states in these final days, even after forcing McCain to write off any hope of inroads into Kerry states not called "Pennsylvania". On the safe side, it minimizes the chance that one or two states' screw-ups (bad turnout predictions, voter disenfranchisement, long lines, outright fraud) will jeopardize the entire election. On the risky side, keeping small leads gives McCain a slightly greater chance of winning back a whole bunch of the states at once, if something were to happen to shift the national mood a few points in his favor.
I think that the Obama camp is going with the right strategy, as hard as it to watch. The national polls do seem to be trending in McCain's direction. I said yesterday that much of this change may be base consolidation in red states, given all the red meat he's thrown them lately (accusations of socialism and terrorisms are always redneck crowd pleasers). But even if that's wrong, there are still only four full days left until the election. Maybe if the election were November 15, McCain could come back in a legitimate sense, but four days is simply too short to make up a full 3-5 points in most of these states.
This is especially true in the age of early voting, when large numbers of voters cast their ballots during Obama's peak of the past two weeks. What's more, the trends in early voting by party and demographic suggest that it's Obama's base that has come out early, meaning that the opportunity for McCain to peel away some of his support is even smaller than it would have been in previous years. McCain's whole strategy in the past month has been to run a Bush/Rove-style campaign--throwing every kind of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks--but this isn't what he needs to be doing. This campaign style plays to the base, but as we saw in the 2006 elections, the Republican base is not nearly the size it used to be. What McCain needs right now is independents, and he's unlikely to get them this way. The campaign he's running now makes absolutely no sense--but I'm not complaining.
posted by Andrew at
6:57 PM
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