Today's Numbers - October 25

Watch out, or I might decide to go rogue:









Sorry for the poor image quality on the numbers--on the road, I'm forced to use MS Paint instead of my usual Photoshop, so.

I think we've figured out how far the markets can go. Right now McCain is given a 13-15% chance of pulling this off, which hasn't changed significantly in the past five days--despite a small but real increase for Obama in the poll numbers. I think what we're seeing here is that the markets have decided that McCain realistically cannot pull this off by normal means, but there is a chance that some screwup will give it to him. That screwup could be a massive voter disenfranchisement (for which efforts are underway, but struggling), outright fraud in some key states (hello, Diebold!), a complete failure of the Obama turnout operation, or a massive, systematic failure of polls to accurately gauge public opinion. But what McCain won't do is come back in any legitimate sense. So while this thing's not quite over, it's certainly looking about as over as it's going to get before November 4.

See you monday.