Today's Numbers - October 22
This is getting pretty repetitive:
Things are pretty flat in the polls again today, so the win percentage numbers keep moving up incrementally. (The polls were actually all over the place--for example, we know that Obama's lead is somewhere between one and fourteen points, amusingly--but they averaged out to about the same place they were yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that...)
I'm beginning to repeat myself, but time is running out for McCain, and he's obviously just spinning his wheels right now. The NYT reported today that McCain's basically going all in with Pennsylvania. In my mind, a smart move, but also a sign of how desperate things are. The electoral map is this right now: Iowa and New Mexico are solid pickups for Obama from 2004. That brings Obama to 264 EV. Add Colorado or Virginia to the mix (273 / 277 EV), and it's game over. However, if PA flips to McCain, Obama can have both VA and CO and still lose (266 EV). McCain's calculation is that he's got a better chance of taking PA than he does of holding BOTH VA and CO, and I think he's right. McCain's only strategy at this point is stoking up fears of Obama's supposed -isms: socialism, terrorism, anti-americanism, etc. That won't fly in Colorado, at least not as well as it might in rural Pennsylvania. And I think Pfotenhauer blew McCain's last hopes of keeping Virginia. (The Daily Show link is a great clip to watch regardless.)
McCain's odds of taking PA? Not good. But it's about all he's got right now. And if Obama manages to also take any of Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, or Georgia, or North Dakota & Montana together? Game over.
Things are pretty flat in the polls again today, so the win percentage numbers keep moving up incrementally. (The polls were actually all over the place--for example, we know that Obama's lead is somewhere between one and fourteen points, amusingly--but they averaged out to about the same place they were yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that...)
I'm beginning to repeat myself, but time is running out for McCain, and he's obviously just spinning his wheels right now. The NYT reported today that McCain's basically going all in with Pennsylvania. In my mind, a smart move, but also a sign of how desperate things are. The electoral map is this right now: Iowa and New Mexico are solid pickups for Obama from 2004. That brings Obama to 264 EV. Add Colorado or Virginia to the mix (273 / 277 EV), and it's game over. However, if PA flips to McCain, Obama can have both VA and CO and still lose (266 EV). McCain's calculation is that he's got a better chance of taking PA than he does of holding BOTH VA and CO, and I think he's right. McCain's only strategy at this point is stoking up fears of Obama's supposed -isms: socialism, terrorism, anti-americanism, etc. That won't fly in Colorado, at least not as well as it might in rural Pennsylvania. And I think Pfotenhauer blew McCain's last hopes of keeping Virginia. (The Daily Show link is a great clip to watch regardless.)
McCain's odds of taking PA? Not good. But it's about all he's got right now. And if Obama manages to also take any of Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, or Georgia, or North Dakota & Montana together? Game over.
posted by Andrew at
6:44 PM
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