Today's Numbers - October 21
A day without movement is a day without sunshine--for McCain:
(the obvious melanoma jokes aside...)
So almost no movement in the EV numbers--almost all the movement in the lower EV number is a product of Pollster switching Florida to toss-up status, sapping 27 EVs from Obama in their calculation because of a string of tight polling. Otherwise, no movement there. Despite the GWU/Battleground figure I had a mini-freakout about earlier, most of the popular vote measures actually went up today, owing to a few very nice numbers for Obama in some non-tracking polls released today. (Our number goes down because the Iowa markets--perhaps the reason I've been popping antacids every day lately--jumped around again today and settled on a far more reasonable number than the +11 they were at yesterday.)
Which leaves us with the win percentage numbers--which, it's easy to see, are at an all-time high. Two weeks until election day, not counting the early voting already going on (and which the Democrats seem to be benefiting from), and time is running out for Team McCain. The bump in the popular vote polls today seem to suggest that the tightening we've seen over the past week has flattened out or may even be reversing. I think the Wright issue is almost inevitable at this point--I suppose McCain may still try to preserve what's left of his legacy by not bring it up directly, but others will on their behalf--but it's old news to pretty much everyone and is likely to turn off just as many people as it turns on.
So this is why the win percentage numbers are high and getting higher--what more can McCain do? Since his campaign is obviously directionless and undisciplined, in start contrast to Obama's (Biden's relapsed foot-in-mouth disease excluded), and with little time, money, or credibility to recover on the merits, he's down to hoping for either a) the polls to be way, way off, or b) the previously-mentioned "external contingency" to occur. The odds of the latter happening are decreasing by the day, which leaves McCain with a surprisingly typical Republican position to rest his hat on: praying that science might be wrong.
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Also: Note that I've finally updated the links on the right-hand-side of the page to include the new poll trackers I've added since I originally set up this page, so if you want to know where I get this data, it's all over there.
(the obvious melanoma jokes aside...)
So almost no movement in the EV numbers--almost all the movement in the lower EV number is a product of Pollster switching Florida to toss-up status, sapping 27 EVs from Obama in their calculation because of a string of tight polling. Otherwise, no movement there. Despite the GWU/Battleground figure I had a mini-freakout about earlier, most of the popular vote measures actually went up today, owing to a few very nice numbers for Obama in some non-tracking polls released today. (Our number goes down because the Iowa markets--perhaps the reason I've been popping antacids every day lately--jumped around again today and settled on a far more reasonable number than the +11 they were at yesterday.)
Which leaves us with the win percentage numbers--which, it's easy to see, are at an all-time high. Two weeks until election day, not counting the early voting already going on (and which the Democrats seem to be benefiting from), and time is running out for Team McCain. The bump in the popular vote polls today seem to suggest that the tightening we've seen over the past week has flattened out or may even be reversing. I think the Wright issue is almost inevitable at this point--I suppose McCain may still try to preserve what's left of his legacy by not bring it up directly, but others will on their behalf--but it's old news to pretty much everyone and is likely to turn off just as many people as it turns on.
So this is why the win percentage numbers are high and getting higher--what more can McCain do? Since his campaign is obviously directionless and undisciplined, in start contrast to Obama's (Biden's relapsed foot-in-mouth disease excluded), and with little time, money, or credibility to recover on the merits, he's down to hoping for either a) the polls to be way, way off, or b) the previously-mentioned "external contingency" to occur. The odds of the latter happening are decreasing by the day, which leaves McCain with a surprisingly typical Republican position to rest his hat on: praying that science might be wrong.
-------------
Also: Note that I've finally updated the links on the right-hand-side of the page to include the new poll trackers I've added since I originally set up this page, so if you want to know where I get this data, it's all over there.
posted by Andrew at
11:30 PM
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