Today's Numbers - October 20
15 days to go to the election, but I won't make you wait that long:
We see a continuation of the incremental tightening I discussed earlier in these numbers. Nate Silver isn't too worried and says that it's hard to imagine that McCain can make up that kind of ground in two weeks without some "external contingency" shaking up the race. I'm not so certain. I agree that it's hard to make up a half point a day, but that's presuming we really are in a 7-point race. What worries me is that maybe the average poll is getting it wrong, that somehow all these new voters for Obama will act like new voters in other elections and not actually show up in anywhere near the prophecied numbers, or that conversely lots more Republicans will turn out (motivated by rantings about terrorists and socialists--or for that matter, black people--in the white house) than the polls predict. Maybe the race is closer to the 4-point race claimed by Rasmussen and GWU/Battleground in their tracking polls today, or even the 2-point race AP-Yahoo found among adults in a poll last week. In that case, two weeks is a much longer time than it is with a 7-point lead. I don't mean to be all doom-and-gloom about it, but having worked on the 2004 campaign in OH, PA, and NH, I know what it's like to watch everything you worked so hard for fall apart, and I can't stand to see that happen again.
On a totally different note:
The interesting story of the next few days may be this. Obama is leaving the campaign trail to fly to Hawaii and be with his ailing grandmother. The question is, what does John McCain do? He can stay on the trail and risk looking vulgar (taking advantage of Obama's absence while Obama shows his family cred), or he can lay low and give up 2-3 days out of 15 during which he might do something to get back in this. It looks like a lose-lose for McCain, but it will be interesting to see how he decides to handle things.
And finally: Wright alert. If McCain decides to use this while Obama's away, it could be suicidal, especially since Joe Biden would never let it slide--and a Biden tirade in Obama's absence would be major. As TO says, get your popcorn ready.
We see a continuation of the incremental tightening I discussed earlier in these numbers. Nate Silver isn't too worried and says that it's hard to imagine that McCain can make up that kind of ground in two weeks without some "external contingency" shaking up the race. I'm not so certain. I agree that it's hard to make up a half point a day, but that's presuming we really are in a 7-point race. What worries me is that maybe the average poll is getting it wrong, that somehow all these new voters for Obama will act like new voters in other elections and not actually show up in anywhere near the prophecied numbers, or that conversely lots more Republicans will turn out (motivated by rantings about terrorists and socialists--or for that matter, black people--in the white house) than the polls predict. Maybe the race is closer to the 4-point race claimed by Rasmussen and GWU/Battleground in their tracking polls today, or even the 2-point race AP-Yahoo found among adults in a poll last week. In that case, two weeks is a much longer time than it is with a 7-point lead. I don't mean to be all doom-and-gloom about it, but having worked on the 2004 campaign in OH, PA, and NH, I know what it's like to watch everything you worked so hard for fall apart, and I can't stand to see that happen again.
On a totally different note:
The interesting story of the next few days may be this. Obama is leaving the campaign trail to fly to Hawaii and be with his ailing grandmother. The question is, what does John McCain do? He can stay on the trail and risk looking vulgar (taking advantage of Obama's absence while Obama shows his family cred), or he can lay low and give up 2-3 days out of 15 during which he might do something to get back in this. It looks like a lose-lose for McCain, but it will be interesting to see how he decides to handle things.
And finally: Wright alert. If McCain decides to use this while Obama's away, it could be suicidal, especially since Joe Biden would never let it slide--and a Biden tirade in Obama's absence would be major. As TO says, get your popcorn ready.
posted by Andrew at
9:14 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home