Today's Numbers - October 18
McCain's slow creeping continues, and I mean in the polls:
A little movement away from Obama's highs of a few days ago, but nothing to panic about yet--just more to stay vigilant. The only number showing a substantial move is the top EV number, and that's just a product of an updated Chris Cillizza number; the Washington Post has three different dates for the same numbers on their site--one on the generic campaign map, one on their estimated campaign map, and one on Cillizza's blog--and I've finally settled on checking Cillizza's blog every day because the numbers on the maps aren't updated regularly. (They also have a map based on RCP data, but I don't include that because it borrows the state-level estimates, so it would essentially be double-weighting RCP, and it is also undated.)
Other than that, not much movement except for the slight inching toward McCain that I mentioned yesterday. It's not being reflected in the EV numbers just yet, but we see the popular vote totals going down a bit (even more if you discount Iowa's number somehow going up to an incredulous 12.9% margin), and the win percentage forecasts are just slightly off their highs. As I said before, no need for panic, but it's just a reminder of the need for Obama supporters to stay vigilant. McCain seems to have stopped the bleeding at this point, by tempering the personal attacks and instead returning to the classic republican tactics of attacking on taxes and emphasizing Obama's "liberal" record. So it's time to stop planning for blowout victory parties and keeping focusing on the race as it is: one wherein Obama has a respectable lead of probably 5 points nationally, but where McCain is far from defeated. Complacency now can make 5 points dry up pretty quickly by November 4.
Since the pattern of little weekend movement has been clear for the past couple weeks, there probably won't be a numbers update tomorrow unless something major happens in the polls. I might post a bit more commentary if anything exciting happens between now and then (Powell endorsement anyone?), but otherwise I'll see you Monday.
A little movement away from Obama's highs of a few days ago, but nothing to panic about yet--just more to stay vigilant. The only number showing a substantial move is the top EV number, and that's just a product of an updated Chris Cillizza number; the Washington Post has three different dates for the same numbers on their site--one on the generic campaign map, one on their estimated campaign map, and one on Cillizza's blog--and I've finally settled on checking Cillizza's blog every day because the numbers on the maps aren't updated regularly. (They also have a map based on RCP data, but I don't include that because it borrows the state-level estimates, so it would essentially be double-weighting RCP, and it is also undated.)
Other than that, not much movement except for the slight inching toward McCain that I mentioned yesterday. It's not being reflected in the EV numbers just yet, but we see the popular vote totals going down a bit (even more if you discount Iowa's number somehow going up to an incredulous 12.9% margin), and the win percentage forecasts are just slightly off their highs. As I said before, no need for panic, but it's just a reminder of the need for Obama supporters to stay vigilant. McCain seems to have stopped the bleeding at this point, by tempering the personal attacks and instead returning to the classic republican tactics of attacking on taxes and emphasizing Obama's "liberal" record. So it's time to stop planning for blowout victory parties and keeping focusing on the race as it is: one wherein Obama has a respectable lead of probably 5 points nationally, but where McCain is far from defeated. Complacency now can make 5 points dry up pretty quickly by November 4.
Since the pattern of little weekend movement has been clear for the past couple weeks, there probably won't be a numbers update tomorrow unless something major happens in the polls. I might post a bit more commentary if anything exciting happens between now and then (Powell endorsement anyone?), but otherwise I'll see you Monday.
posted by Andrew at
4:49 PM
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