A Tightening Race

New numbers to come this evening, but right now I want everybody to go look at two things:

• Pollster's estimate of the popular vote trend. (Of all the sites tracking popular vote numbers, I tend to trust Pollster's the most, since they include every scientific poll available, use regressions to estimate the over-time trends [as opposed to simple averages], and their model responds accurately to change in the national mood.)
  
  
• Sean Quinn's warning about the dangers of the complacency that can come from favorable polls.
  

This race has tightened up over the past week--there's no denying that now. And there are still 15 days left until the election, which is plenty of time for things to close up even more. So to all the Obama supporters out there: Don't get cocky. There's plenty of work left to be done. The campaign still needs volunteers. They still need money, even despite yesterday's announcement--much of that money has already been spent just on building and keeping the lead Obama has now, and it will take more to keep it going through election day. And for those of you who live in swing states or have friends there--make sure nobody you know decides to stay home on November 4th. There's no excuse for it, unless they've already voted early. Otherwise, keep pestering, and if necessary, show up on their door and drag them to the polling place. They'll thank you come January.