Today's Numbers - September 27
First, the numbers:
Right now, the race looks very good for Obama. This is mostly due to a handful of factors going his way lately--McCain's convention bounce fading, the public's disillusionment with Sarah Palin, and the focus over the last two weeks on the economy, an issue on which Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain. The results out of today's major tracking polls (Rasmussen, Gallup, DailyKos/Research 2000, & Diageo/Hotline) all showed 5-6 point leads for Obama.
The main thing to look for in the next few days is whether last night's debate changes anything. In polls released immediately after the debate, Obama seemed to come out on top. In particular, public perceptions of his readiness to be commander-in-chief (one of his weakest points) increased dramatically. We'll have to wait and see whether this turns into a lead in voter preferences, particularly one that lasts more than a day or two. By the time we have Wednesday or Thursday's numbers, the picture should be more clear. After that, the VP debate Thursday night will start having its own effects--that should be interesting in its own right.
My guess? Obama may pick up a point or so from the debate, but if the bailout plan passes soon and the economy stabilizes over the next week, it'll be a wash.
Finally, the popular vote numbers are usually a few days ahead of the electoral vote numbers, because national polls are released daily (between the daily trackers and other polls), while individual states might go a few days or even a week or two between polls, depending upon the competitiveness of the state. As such, the electoral vote numbers you see above are probably a little lower than they will be in a few days (with the exception of the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers, which incorporate national polls in the state-by-state simulations). To get a sense of what we might expect a national lead of 3.7 points to translate into, I'll leave you with a look at past elections' popular vote differences and electoral vote differences:
As you can see, a small change in the popular vote can make a huge difference in the electoral college. If Obama can hold on to his 3.7 point lead, he'll probably win by at least 50 EV. If the lead fades by 2 points or more, it's anybody's game. If he can build on it and get it up to 5 or 6, though, we could be in for a blowout. Remember, though: we still have 3 debates and over 5 weeks to go. Anything could happen.
Right now, the race looks very good for Obama. This is mostly due to a handful of factors going his way lately--McCain's convention bounce fading, the public's disillusionment with Sarah Palin, and the focus over the last two weeks on the economy, an issue on which Obama has a double-digit lead over McCain. The results out of today's major tracking polls (Rasmussen, Gallup, DailyKos/Research 2000, & Diageo/Hotline) all showed 5-6 point leads for Obama.
The main thing to look for in the next few days is whether last night's debate changes anything. In polls released immediately after the debate, Obama seemed to come out on top. In particular, public perceptions of his readiness to be commander-in-chief (one of his weakest points) increased dramatically. We'll have to wait and see whether this turns into a lead in voter preferences, particularly one that lasts more than a day or two. By the time we have Wednesday or Thursday's numbers, the picture should be more clear. After that, the VP debate Thursday night will start having its own effects--that should be interesting in its own right.
My guess? Obama may pick up a point or so from the debate, but if the bailout plan passes soon and the economy stabilizes over the next week, it'll be a wash.
Finally, the popular vote numbers are usually a few days ahead of the electoral vote numbers, because national polls are released daily (between the daily trackers and other polls), while individual states might go a few days or even a week or two between polls, depending upon the competitiveness of the state. As such, the electoral vote numbers you see above are probably a little lower than they will be in a few days (with the exception of the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers, which incorporate national polls in the state-by-state simulations). To get a sense of what we might expect a national lead of 3.7 points to translate into, I'll leave you with a look at past elections' popular vote differences and electoral vote differences:
| Year: 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 | PV margin (GOP - Dem): 2.4 -0.5 -8.5 -5.3 7.8 18.2 9.7 -2.1 23.2 0.7 | EV margin (GOP - Dem): 34 5 -220 -202 315 512 440 -57 503 110 |
As you can see, a small change in the popular vote can make a huge difference in the electoral college. If Obama can hold on to his 3.7 point lead, he'll probably win by at least 50 EV. If the lead fades by 2 points or more, it's anybody's game. If he can build on it and get it up to 5 or 6, though, we could be in for a blowout. Remember, though: we still have 3 debates and over 5 weeks to go. Anything could happen.
posted by Andrew at
2:29 PM
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