Today's Numbers - September 29
Another stable day:
Still waiting for a new batch of state polls. There were a few that came out today, but not enough to create a change in any of the state-poll based trackers. Tomorrow should be a different story, because this close to the election there are a lot of pollsters in the field and we haven't seen anything significant since Friday.
The national polls stayed pretty much the same today as well, with an insignificant move in Obama's favor. But if we're talking in terms of likelihood of winning, any day where nothing happens is a good day for Obama, because that's one less day when McCain has a chance to alter the direction of the race. Unless something dramatic happens that would shift the race in McCain's favor (a new bin Laden video, perhaps?), expect another out-of-nowhere move from him along the lines of the Palin pick and "suspending" his campaign. There are growing calls from the right to dump Palin now before things get any worse, but Nate over at FiveThirtyEight had a great post yesterday discussing why that's unlikely to happen. What else McCain could do, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if he decides to "go nuclear" and focus mainly on a lot of the personal issues with Obama that we heard in the primaries--Jeremiah Wright, etc--and stop arguing the issues entirely. Many pundits have called this race a referendum on Obama for months now (since voters seem to think they know McCain well enough already), so it wouldn't be surprising for the McCain camp to try and kick his unfavorable ratings up to the point where he'd be unelectable, with McCain as the supposedly-safe default choice.
If you are over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate also has some interesting posts about the politics of today's bailout vote. I'm not sure I agree with his projections about what will happen in the future, but it's an interesting conversation-starter. (Though I have to give Nate a little grief for the erratic scheduling of his updates--sometimes he posts them in the early afternoon, sometime not til late, so that's why today's numbers from him aren't included in these numbers yet.)
Over the next few days I hope to add a few more trackers to here, including NBC Political Director Chuck Todd's electoral map, as well as a fourth chart that includes the various futures markets' estimated win probabilities. And speaking of markets, for what it's worth, Intrade finally fixed the Average/Leaning problem I discussed yesterday, so you can interpret those numbers the way that they're intended.
Still waiting for a new batch of state polls. There were a few that came out today, but not enough to create a change in any of the state-poll based trackers. Tomorrow should be a different story, because this close to the election there are a lot of pollsters in the field and we haven't seen anything significant since Friday.
The national polls stayed pretty much the same today as well, with an insignificant move in Obama's favor. But if we're talking in terms of likelihood of winning, any day where nothing happens is a good day for Obama, because that's one less day when McCain has a chance to alter the direction of the race. Unless something dramatic happens that would shift the race in McCain's favor (a new bin Laden video, perhaps?), expect another out-of-nowhere move from him along the lines of the Palin pick and "suspending" his campaign. There are growing calls from the right to dump Palin now before things get any worse, but Nate over at FiveThirtyEight had a great post yesterday discussing why that's unlikely to happen. What else McCain could do, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be the least surprised if he decides to "go nuclear" and focus mainly on a lot of the personal issues with Obama that we heard in the primaries--Jeremiah Wright, etc--and stop arguing the issues entirely. Many pundits have called this race a referendum on Obama for months now (since voters seem to think they know McCain well enough already), so it wouldn't be surprising for the McCain camp to try and kick his unfavorable ratings up to the point where he'd be unelectable, with McCain as the supposedly-safe default choice.
If you are over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate also has some interesting posts about the politics of today's bailout vote. I'm not sure I agree with his projections about what will happen in the future, but it's an interesting conversation-starter. (Though I have to give Nate a little grief for the erratic scheduling of his updates--sometimes he posts them in the early afternoon, sometime not til late, so that's why today's numbers from him aren't included in these numbers yet.)
Over the next few days I hope to add a few more trackers to here, including NBC Political Director Chuck Todd's electoral map, as well as a fourth chart that includes the various futures markets' estimated win probabilities. And speaking of markets, for what it's worth, Intrade finally fixed the Average/Leaning problem I discussed yesterday, so you can interpret those numbers the way that they're intended.
posted by Andrew at
4:57 PM
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